[China Aluminium network] with the end of the National Day holiday, metal aluminum spot market trading
volume has been active, but involved in trading market participants generally reflect, although trading volume
increased gradually, but the transaction price has been massive inventory effects appear down signs.
"Before the London aluminum price is $2110 / ton, after the price is 2107 dollars / ton,prices did not fluctuate
significantly. Due to the National Day holiday, almost no major changes in the festival, the order is very few.
Now expect the country to introduce new policies to increase economic stimulus, boost market demand for
basic raw materials."
Wang, manager of the business of aluminum trading, "China Times" reporter said in an interview.
As of October 11th, the main 1212 contract price of the main contract opened at 15490 yuan/ ton, up 15560
yuan / ton, closing at 15490 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day's settlement price fell 75 yuan / ton.
Day total turnover of 9836 hand, 1556 hand positions to reduce the hand to 60610. Overnight aluminum fell
steadily, from fourth consecutive days fell 2.05% to 2007 U.S. dollars / ton.
Chinese factors become the wind vane
October 10th, has been regarded as the market for the United States stock market earnings benchmark Alcoa
Corp, the latest quarterly earnings report shows that due to insufficient demand caused by a variety of factors,
such as aluminum prices fell and additional expenses, the company in the third quarter of the quarter net loss of
143000000 U.S.dollars, equivalent to a loss of 13 cents per share.
Earnings from the point of view, Alcoa's downgrade of global aluminum demand growth is xpected in 2012,
the main reason is the world's largest aluminum consumer China slowdown in demand. The company will
2012 aluminum demand growth is expected to be down from the original 6% to 7%.
As is known to all, the metallic aluminum is after steel in the world the most widely used metal, from the plane
to the cans in the production and processing are needed with aluminum as raw materials. But it is such a huge
demand for industrial products, the price increase is far behind copper and other metals.
In addition, the past industry giants have receded past scenery. Such as veteran United Company Rusal. Three
years ago of debt restructuring, now is still limping, and now negotiating with banks extended protocol grace
period. But in the China aluminum smelting achievements, to make western manufacturers uneasy. According
to the International Aluminum Association statistics, in 2000 China has only 2800000 tons of production, the
market share is relatively small; now China has become a decisive force in the market, the output of 17800000
tons last year, accounting for 40% of the world's total output.
In this regard, the new lake futures nonferrous metals researcher Xu Hongping think, Xinjiang Agricultural
Division of the six aluminum (Shandong Xinfa), Henan Shenhuo Group, Xinjiang aluminium (Hunan double
aluminum), the East Hope Group, Xinjiang the Asia Aluminum (Sichuan sub), above all is in Xinjiang at
present in the construction of aluminium electrolysis. These new and put into production in the northwest
region, mainly in Xinjiang. At the same time, the completion and construction of about 4000000 tons, the
completion of the construction in September of this year has reached 1100000 tons, more planning. Xinjiang
has no downstream processing enterprises to digest, so most will continue to flow to the East, Southern China
and Henan each warehouse.
Aluminium stocks or over a million tons
According to the latest published September Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) shows that
although the domestic downstream manufacturing industry has a certain fill library behavior, but in October the
manufacturing and construction industry is facing are downside risk. At the same time, infrastructure projects
are not likely to have started in the fourth quarter may be possible, so the demand for non-ferrous metals or
will again turn weak, the possibility of greater downward pressure on the price of aluminum is growing.
Xinhu futures nonferrous metals researcher Xu Hongping, before and after the National Day holiday, at home
and abroad basic metal inventory appeared different degree of increase,September LME zinc stocks increased
more than 4 million tons, an increase of 4.23%, the domestic stock futures increase 1.68%, to return to the top
of the 30 million tons. In addition, the metal price increases in September, to a large extent improve the
profitability of the smelting plant. Therefore, pre sell enterprises put the goods, but downstream procurement
efforts obviously can not keep up with smelting enterprise production and release of goods speed, this is the
inventory increase.
She believes that compared to last year's inventory data can be found through, aluminum ingot with the same
period last year inventory at a low level, should now is close to the historical peak. The end of last year, the
end of four the total inventory of 355000 tons, this year is 890000 tons (as of September 27th), increased to
950000 tons after the national day.
Coupled with Tianjin, Henan and other non statistical range of inventory, is expected to break through 1000000
tons. Among them, the most obvious is the Wuxi and Shanghai stock. If according to the normal, aluminum
ingot inventory during the Spring Festival at a high level, but in March and April will be slowly digested at a
normal level, but this year seems very unusual.
"Currently ingot should still be in excess supply, northwest of new capacity put for aluminum ingot inventory
increased biggest contribution. At the same time, to 11, the Shanghai futures exchange next year January
delivery of aluminum futures contract closed at 15500 yuan per ton, a month to hit a new low, more than a
thousand dollars a year in February hit a high point. Therefore, now can be considered to continue to short
Shanghai aluminum." Market participants, Mr. Wang said in an interview with reporters.